Saturday, 26 October 2019

Analysis of Vidhan Sabha 2019

Analysis of Vidhan Sabha 2019 

Did the BJP & Sena gain or lose?  For me, NCP a clear winner and so is the Congress! There are N number of experts to analyse the results of Vidhan Sabha 2019 but let me put some light as to what went wrong with the BJP/Sena-- number-wise and % of vote wise, both the ruling parties set to form government again, are seeing red. Just 15 days ago, when I met the BJP karyakarta's after the conclusion of Mahajanadesh Yatra, everything seemed rosy for the Mahayuti to gain 220+ seats but last 15 days before the actual voting, the tide had turned; and guess what or who was the factor? Obviously, one & only veteran Sharad Pawar. At 80, this man refuses to accept defeat be it a personal battle with a major ailment or on the battle field of politics--even when the government bombarded him with ED and what not! Timing of ED to go behind Sharad Pawar was wrong--it should have been  limited to Raj Thackrey & Praful Patel..

By the way just FYI, Maratha reservation that was given by the DF government has just turned its back on DF. Sharad Pawar played the major part in re-uniting every Muslim and Maratha and part of OBC's against the government rurally. Yes, the veteran who travelled across the state in spite of an injury to the foot and fresh from a tongue operation, converted these caste based votes back into the NCP. NCP had 42 seats in 2014 and 41 seats were with Congress. Out of 42 with the NCP around 10 to 12 had moved to the BJP so that means NCP's actual MLA number was around 30. But the party managed to almost double their number (54 seats in 2019) and had Congress put some extra efforts, it wouldn't have come as a surprise that the NCP-Cong would have staked their claim to form the government. But nothing taking away Congress's efforts too..My main observation in this party's success only points to Balasaheb Thorat, Vishwajit Kadam, Satyajit Tambe & Satej (Bunty) Patil. Out of which I have heard during the floods in western Maharashtra, Vishwajit, at the end of working tirelessly, couldn't even walk for a mile due to infections caught on his legs. But the efforts paid off and today Congress sprung a surprise. Bravo Vishwajit Kadam & Satyajit Tambe's planning, and Thorat's management to keep in-fighting of congress at bay.  

So what went wrong with the BJP especially? Could they avoid the alliance with Sena & other parties and what if they would have fought separately--would it had given a different result? Let me pen down some valid reasons. And those who are shouting BJP's strike rate of 70% (105 out 0f 160) let me tell you, it is a thought that will temporarily keep you happy. In reality the BJP has lost some major seats in Vidharbha, and western Maharashtra. So premier reasons for the defeat is indeed the import of 23 MLA's from other parties. Second, I would rate it to the alliance of the BJP-Sena. Third I would rate to the in-fighting or immaturity shown by the BJP-Sena leaders at crucial junction,(BJP & SENA workers never worked for each other's candidate), fourth the OVERCONFIDENCE of BJP's top brass and Last but not the least the worst ticket distribution of the BJP mainly than the Sena. But of all the reason, IGNORING and SIDELINING Nitin Gadkari was the biggest mistake BJP made. Some are saying his health was the reason for his non-involvement, but many of us know the actual reason.  

In-fighting I can give some examples. In the Versova constituency of Mumbai, Bharti Lavhekar just came with a small margin. Rajul Patel ate most of her votes and there had come a point when we thought that Baldev Khosa would have manage to win, but at the end Bharti Lavhekar won with a small margin. She should thank none other than MLA Manisha Choudhary for her victory. Choudhary hails from Palghar and has excellent touch with all the Koli's in her constituency and all over Mumbai too..Here Lavhekar did not enjoy a good support of the Koli community...It was Manisha Choudhary who called up and sent a separate team to convince the Koli's of Versova to vote for the BJP rather than the candidate. She promised differences would work out and the results were shown. Then in Sion Captain Tamil Selvan was a victim of in fighting of the BJP. BJP's top brass were helping his opposition even financially just because they wanted some one else to get a ticket. Bandra East will see a "abuser" Zeeshan Siddique come to sit in the Vidhan Bhavan due to Sena's Trupti Sawant (rebel Sena candidate) and Mayor Mahadeshwar's fight. What if Uddhav had promised Sawant a mayoral post and asked her to NOT contest from Bandra East? She ate Mahadeshwar's votes and in-fighting saw Zeeshan Siddique win. I'm sure there was an arrangement between Baba Siddique and Sawant. 

But you know what? I'm the happiest to see Pankaja Munde loose. She deserved it. At least now her husband will stop all his antics in Pune and concentrate on the constituency. Arrogance and no-connect with common public made her sit home. Similarly for a lot of BJP Ministers who lost, similar reasons can be attributed. Now what is on the plate for Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackrey? 

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Choose good and able Ministers. Let old timers like Subhash Desai rest home and given chance to MLA's rather than MLC's. My guess says, if and all, Aditya Thackrey plans to become a Minister either he will be given Cabinet rank and give charge of Environment portfolio or if the party heads thinks it's his first time, he can be given a MoS portfolio which are less significant say sports, or environment MOS and so on. Surely Atul Bhatkalkar, Manisha Choudhary Ganesh Naik, will hold key portfolios. 

Another point. Now don't be surprised to see a steep rise in portfolio of Ashish Shelar. He is the only Maratha left in the BJP who can actually bring some pride back. Looking at the opposition which is more than stronger ever now, Devendra Fadnavis will have to let go off his ego and give Shelar some importance now, who is his only competition in the state. 

These results will now see arrogance back to the ShivSena. Press conference post results of Uddhav Thackrey said it all. Here, NCP will do nothing but unite all opposition and write it somewhere, from the BJP, likes of Vinod Tawde and Eknath Khadse will give them support internally. It is a huge task to perform now for DF. I, Me, Myself rule will have to take a back seat and they will have to give their TWIN BROTHER Sena a say in the government. Bureaucrats who are known to sit on files and not work for days together will have to be shifted and important portfolios like Revenue & PWD will need a performing & individual Minister. Sharad Pawar has already removed the fear of ED notices and other pressure tactics from the hearts of leaders opposing BJP. The opposition is fuming and it won't be surprised DF faces some acute problems in the coming future. He has to be on the point and make his Ministers work. 

With saying all this, let me be very clear. Devendra Fadnavis is the best CM option we have who is educated, good character and not running after money. But as it is said, when the going gets tough, the tough gets going...But now it will be fun to cover Vidhan Sabha, on one hand we have likes of Prithviraj Chavan, Ashok Chavan, Ajit Pawar, Chagan Bhujbal, Jayant Patil,  Dhanajay Munde, Walse Patil against only four/five neats who can speak--Devendra Fadnavis, Sudhir Mungantiwar, Chandrakant Patil, Ramdas Kadam and Girish Mahajan. Time of Shelar to up his game and sit on the ranks of these. Oh before i leave you, Eknath Shinde will be sworn as the next Dy. CM, claim insiders!!

1 comment:

  1. You should post English translation of all your articles.

    ReplyDelete