Friday, 24 February 2017

OFF THE RECORD post BMC result analysis

OFF THE RECORD post BMC result analysis 

 I'm confused as to how many seats Shivsena has won...BMC on the 23rd, had officially declared Sena with 84 seats right? But with independents & rebels making a comeback, there has been an increase in Sena's seats. The Times of India front page says Shivsena has 87 seats and Mid-Day says SS has 86 seats. Mumbai Mirror says 4 independents have pledged their loyalty back to Sena (2 were rebels) making the tally to 88. I'm assuming it to be 88 now and BJP at 81. Now let's see at various permutations & combinations that will be cleared on the 9th March on the day when one or the other party will commence it's rule for the next 5 years at the richest Corporation of Asia.

Combination 1:
Shivsena & Congress
With the tally of 88 seats for Shivsena and Congress being seated on 31, it will be a simple case of majority and Shivsena will have it's ego polished of having the Mayor post. But, now we have to understand why will Congress associate itself with the SS? Current State President Ashok Chavan  yesterday had issued a statement, that first Shivsena will have to break it's alliance with the BJP in state government and then only it will think about the BMC alliance. Those who have thought of Congress being the King-Maker, think twice. Yes, Congress has the seats. But why you forget that it will take BJP government both in State & Centre to send Congress's State President to jail in next 2 months over Adarsh issue. Many Congress leaders are in the corruption net. Ashok Chavan has always had that Adarsh sword hanging on his head. Will he dare to go against the BJP and invite trouble for everyone, is my main question? But Congress can do one thing--It can remain absent on the 9th easing the way for Shivsena.

Combination 2:
Shivsena & NCP 
NCP has secured 9 seats in the BMC elections. It can easily lend its support to the Shivsena in case Congress decides to be ABSENT. Comfortably Shivsena secures the power. NCP supremo had tried his tricks during one of the rallies of NCP, pre-elections. He had dared Shivsena to tender resignations of it's Ministers and break the alliance. But thank God Uddhav Thackrey did not fall for Pawar's trick! See Pawar is in fag end of his political career. Looking at this, he would want to end his career on a high note rather than getting his image mudded which he has built in last 50 years. He has till now successfully saved Ajit Pawar & Sunil Tatkare over irrigation scams only due to his 'goodwill' & relations with PM Modi. He wouldn't want to end his career fighting against Giant Modi & Fadnavis. Why I call them Giant? Because they are in POWER and nothing else...One wrong move of the Pawar's and it's game over for NCP. So technically NCP should also weigh it's pro's & con's to support the Sena.

Combination 3:
Sena & MNS.
MNS with 7 seats SHOULD NOT join hands with the Shivsena looking at the insult Raj Thackrey faced when he called Sanjay Raut & sent Bala Nandgaonkar for joining hands with the Sena pre-elections. Time for payback Raj saheb! He was left red faced and suffered the humiliation of loosing Nashik too. SO even if Shivsena now extend an invitation to the MNS, with whatever self-respect MNS has, it should not accept it. Only think Raj Thackrey now has, is his accumulated wealth & few followers. He wouldn't dare to this.  But God forbid, If this combination (SS & MNS) ever happens, again with mutual understanding Congress & NCP will remain silent. 

So technically all these possibilities of joining hands with the Shivsena, each party should weigh it's pro's & con's. PM Modi will be involved and watching everything very closely. CM Fadnavis is known to take harsh decisions. Why do we forget that the Centre & the State is still in the control of the BJP. Central investigating agencies are in their control. Congress, NCP & MNS are parties having dirty past. So my advice, would be to look at the future, think of the consequences, think of Chagan Bhujbal, and then only decide to extend an olive branch to the Sena. 

Also all the above 3 parties (Cong NCP & MNS) do have a special thinking tank. Not like the Shivsena where only 1 person speaks and rest follow. So advisors be brave and start contributing. 


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